By Charles Pelkey and Reese Jenniges
WyoFile Political Writers
Nick Carter gets chilly.
Photo Credit: BBK. | LARAMIE - In Douglas during the recent Jackalope Days celebration, Converse County Democrats gave fairgoers with good aim and five bucks, a shot at dropping any of the party's four Congressional candidates into a pool of cold water.
As a fundraiser the "Dunk a Democrat" booth offered an innovative opportunity to pull a few bucks out of Republicans in the area. But if the quarterly financial reports due next month are at all similar to those released in March, Wyoming Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate may be facing a bigger dunking in November. |
On Sunday in Casper Vice President Dick Cheney appeared at a $1,200 a plate fundraiser ($1,500 if you wanted a picture) for state GOP candidates, none of whom had to get wet.
Nationally, Democrats are brimming with confidence. Republicans currently hold 23 of the U.S. Senate seats up for election in November. Of those, two – Colorado and Virginia – are clearly vulnerable and three more – New Mexico, Minnesota and New Hampshire – are considered toss-ups. None of the 12 seats currently in the hands of Democrats appears at risk. Good, bad or indifferent, the Democratic majority in the Senate might increase to 56, if you include the two independents – Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut – who caucus with the majority.
This year, Wyoming and Mississippi share the distinction of having both U.S. Senate seats up for voters' consideration in November. Here, it means that the entire Wyoming Congressional delegation is facing election. This is a rare opportunity, one that an energized and well-financed party organization would seize enthusiastically. But aside from what looks to be an interesting, perhaps close, race for the House, Wyoming Democrats appear to have already raised the white flag of surrender when it comes to the Senate seats. One, maybe we could understand, but both?
Quinn McCord, managing editor of The Hotline and a Washington campaign analyst, notes that in those rare cases in which states have both Senate seats up for election, both tend to fall the same way.
"The interesting fact is that in all other recent cases - 1978 in Minnesota where two Republicans won, 1992 in California where two Democrats won, 1994 in Tennessee, again two Republicans, and 1996 in Kansas, also two Republicans - the two open seats were won by the same party," McCord noted. "In any given cycle, the wind seems to be at the back of one party or another which gives a boost to both candidates."
In Wyoming, despite the energy generated by record turnout in party caucuses this February and the largely negative national perception of the GOP, it appears that the wind in those Senate races isn't blowing in Democrats' direction.
"Republicans would be pretty hard-pressed to mess it up," said one long-time political consultant.
| In the first race, Mike Enzi has served in the Senate since the retirement of Al Simpson in 1997. While well established, Enzi could conceivably have been vulnerable, had the opposing party put up a candidate with considerable political capital. In a state where face-to-face politics is a given, Enzi tends to disappear even in a crowd in his home state. The two-term U.S. Senator has had a steady, but unremarkable, tenure in D.C., where he shows little of the party influence his predecessor wielded with flair. Nonetheless, with his combination of incumbency and party-affiliation, it would take a tough – and well-financed – effort to unseat the man from Gillette. | 
Mike Enzi
Courtesy image. |
For those who doubt the formidable power of incumbency and party affiliation, just look at the track record of Barbara Cubin, one of this state's most ineffective and universally disliked politicians in recent memory. Since her 1994 election, Cubin managed to be re-elected to the House until she decided to retire this year. Her scant margin in 2006 may have been the writing on the wall that prompted her decision, but she wasn't voted out of office, as many had predicted she would be.
Far from facing a high-profile challenger, Enzi merely has to run a campaign against a young political neophyte in Democrat Chris Rothfuss, a 35-year-old PhD engineer from Laramie, who has the energy, talent and résumé to be a remarkable public servant. What he lacks, however, is the political track record, name recognition, party support and financing to mount a realistic challenge against a two-term U.S. Senator. His would be a formidable task in any state, but is even more so in this, the reddest of red states.
Rothfuss launched his campaign on March 22, after the cut-off for the most recent FEC financial reports so we don't know what he started with. Rothfuss has no significant financing available and will be facing Enzi who, if he needs to, can tap into a campaign fund that at last report totaled $760,402. That's not bad for a campaign that realistically won't have to spend a whole lot to succeed.
Enzi's financial support comes from a combination of individual contributions totaling $130,563 and $574,717 in cash from his political action committees, including a carryover from his leadership PAC he got when the GOP still controlled the Senate.
At the state Democratic convention in Jackson last month, Rothfuss did his best to put a brave face on what can most politely be called an uphill struggle, noting that "experience is over-rated" and promising a well-organized grassroots campaign throughout the state.
The 2006 campaign of F. Dale Groutage – coincidentally, another PhD engineer – seems to be a campaign whose similarities Rothfuss might want to ignore, but which he needs to consider. Groutage mounted a respectable effort in his race against the late Craig Thomas, but ran the campaign on a $140,000 budget, half of which came from his own pocket. Thomas, meanwhile, had $1.6 million on hand for the campaign and won by a 70 to 30% margin.
"The national party just dropped us," Groutage told WyoFile. "They just really look at the polls and at the amount of money you can raise. There was no support from any major Democrat in Wyoming. We even had trouble with organizations loyal to the Democratic Party."
Perhaps more remarkable is that the state's highest-profile Democrats have apparently also apparently conceded the special election race to complete Thomas's unexpired term to John Barrasso, the Casper physician appointed as a placeholder by Governor Dave Freudenthal just one year ago.
In the absence of a concerted recruiting effort on the part of the state party – which should have started the day Barrasso took office – the only candidates seeking the job are another political newcomer Nick Carter and Casper City Councilman and former state senator Keith Goodenough. Both have their strengths, but without party support and financing, neither will be able to mount a significant challenge to an appointed incumbent, who by March had already amassed a $1.5 million campaign war chest with at least $1.13 million of that held in reserve for the campaign ahead.
John Barrasso
Courtesy image. | Barrasso clearly understood the ugly reality of American politics – money talks– almost the minute he took office. So, too, have his national and state political parties and, above all, political action committees. In the first nine months after taking office, the Barrasso campaign – "The Friends of John Barrasso" – gathered $698,330 in contributions from 625 individual donors. During that same period, political action committees lined up to contribute $822,115. Clearly Barrasso was expecting a fight. The war chest may have already achieved a desired goal in dissuading primary challengers from within his own party – former House speaker Randall Luthi, Tom Sansonetti and former U.S. attorney Matt Mead among them – from jumping into the race. |
The May 30 primary election filing deadline passed with both Enzi and Barrasso running unopposed.
Cook Political Report senior editor Jennifer Duffy suggests that at least part of Barrasso's fundraising success is due to his colleague's belief that his own seat is more secure.
"In this race it is clear from the fundraising that Enzi has really stepped back to let Barrasso raise money, Duffy told WyoFile. "In Wyoming, the trough is only so deep and Barrasso needs money more."
Barrasso's rapid build-up of campaign funds – at the rate of more than $6000 a day – may have also discouraged some of the Democratic Party's more familiar names from entering the fray. State Senator Mike Massey, a popular Albany County Democrat, and former Governor Mike Sullivan had both been mentioned as possible challengers, but they let the May 30 deadline pass.
So on August 19, Democrats will decide between Carter and Goodenough and, if history is an indicator, throw the "winner" to the lions, with little or no funding or organizational support.
Goodenough has a record of pulling off surprising wins in local elections. Indeed, until he lost his state Senate seat, he consistently managed to organize effective grassroots campaigns in usually-Republican Natrona County. As a statewide candidate, Goodenough's record isn't all that hot. In campaigns for governor, he never made much of a mark, often viewed as a fringe candidate who focuses on issues like the legalization of marijuana. Goodenough entered the Senate race after the last FEC filing deadline, but in previous races he has rarely been able to tap into anything beyond a core of small individual contributors.
Carter, on the other hand, looks more viable and is already focusing on November's general election. The Gillette attorney, according to one long-time Democratic strategist, "would be an ideal candidate. He has a great background as an attorney. People who know him, like him, and he's tireless. He just doesn't have any money."
Carter's first-quarter filing underscores the problem he faces. He reported having $29,950 in pledges and $26,743 in cash on hand. All but the $1000 Carter himself contributed comes from small individual donations; not a penny from PACs or other organized contributors.
Carter concedes he's something of an underdog, but adds that he's gaining confidence.
"My last FEC report basically reflects about two or three weeks of fundraising," he said. "Since then, we've managed to raise between $100,000 and $150,000. It's not a lot, especially when you put it up against the bank vault full of special interest money that Barrasso is sitting on."
Democrat Nick Carter
Photo by Nathan Payne, Gillette News Record. | But Carter is quick to add that "big media buys aren't all they're cracked up to be in a state like Wyoming. Money will get you media, but shoe leather is what it takes. I've been going door-to-door since I started campaigning and I get a sense that people aren't especially happy voting for a guy who's pretty much gone to Washington and voted like an extremist since he got there." |
Carter said he takes inspiration from some of the seemingly quixotic campaigns in recent Wyoming history. No, not those like Groutage's, but those ones that actually came close to succeeding, including Gary Trauner's 492-vote loss to Cubin in 2006 and John Vinich's surprising 1300-vote loss to former Senator Malcolm Wallop in 1988.
"Both of those campaigns featured an underdog facing off against someone who had a record of voting more along party lines than with the interests of Wyoming in mind," Carter said. "What's different here is that we have someone in office, who was put there as a place-holder, was never elected, and went to Washington and immediately fell into step with the extremists in his party and with the special interests that are now financing his campaign. I'd say we're in a better position to mount a challenge than even Gary Trauner or John Vinich were at the time."
The parallel raises an interesting question. In Vinich's case, the campaign also began on a shoe-string budget. Vinich was a natural and tireless door-to-door campaigner who beat a well financed Lynn Simons and then blind-sided the more aloof, Yale-educated Wallop, who voters found a little "eastern."
"Yes, strange things can happen, but voters are savvier than they were 20 years ago," noted the Cook Report’s Duffy. "You can blame that on the Internet for good or bad. And candidates like Barrasso are savvier, too. They know they have to run aggressive campaigns even if their opponents are relative unknowns."
As Vinich's effort began to show promise in 1988, the national Democratic party funneled cash into the campaign. Carter says he expects the same "if we can poll closely to Barrasso as the election season comes closer."
It's a realistic expectation, says McCord.
"It is true that you do get more bang for your buck in a state like Wyoming than you do, say, in Texas," McCord noted. "But before the DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) would consider devoting funds to Wyoming the candidates would have to be at least within striking distance."
Wyoming isn't remarkably different from other states in the neighborhood, with heavily favored incumbents often using campaign funds to discourage major efforts to unseat them. In South Dakota, for example, Democratic Senator Tim Johnson – once seen as vulnerable, because of a near-fatal cerebral hemorrhage in 2006 – has amassed a campaign fund totaling $3.2 million. That's likely to increase if he faces a serious challenge from Republican Joel Dykstra, who reported having only one-tenth of the funds of his opponent. Johnson remains heavily favored.
In Montana, Democrat Max Baucus heads into the campaign with $7.1 million to do battle against Bob Kelleher, a dark horse anti-war Republican who won a crowded primary contest. Idaho's open race to replace the retiring Larry "Wide Stance" Craig, will feature a contest between Republican Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch and Democrat Larry Larocco. Risch is favored in the November election, at least in part because of his two-to-one funding advantage of $1.2 million to Larocco's $600,000.
The disparity is greatest in Wyoming, partly because of a general lack of support and organization from the state party. With a small budget and limited staff, the state Democratic party may opt to invest what resource it has this fall into the one contest it thinks it can win, namely the House race between Gary Trauner and the yet-to-be-named Republican nominee, either former state treasurer Cynthia Lummis or political newcomer Mark Gordon.
| Trauner appears to be the best-situated of his party colleagues seeking a shot at national office. In his March 15 Federal Election Commission campaign finance report, the Jackson Democrat began his campaign with a healthy $550,000 on hand, more than what Loomis had. Trauner has secured his nomination, but Lummis faces a tough – and likely expensive – battle for the Republican nod against Gordon, a rancher with considerable personal wealth and little of the political baggage acquired by someone who's spent much of her adult life in politics. | 
Democrat Gary Trauner
Courtesy image. |
Trauner comes into the race with a lot more experience under his belt, good name recognition and lots of enthusiasm from supporters who remember that oh-so-close finish last time around. Trauner largely ran his campaign on his own in 2006. With a vulnerable opponent, he did receive help from the national party, although he often dismissed advice he got from national consultants to "go negative." He held his own on that one, and may reap a benefit in terms of his personal reputation come November.
Reputation aside, Trauner is focused on raising as much money as he can, noting that an early effort "is also imperative to raise the proper funding because in reality that is what killed the campaign last time," with much of Cubin's effort – and cash – coming late in the campaign.
While his close 2006 race and this year's record turn-out for the presidential caucuses have reinvigorated the state party, Trauner still faces a tough fight if he hopes to become the first Democrat since Teno Roncolio to represent the state in Washington. This time around, his job may be tougher, running against either Lummis or Gordon and, above all, not Cubin.
"I have a feeling Democrats wish she were still running," said McCord of the departing U.S. Representative, a point Duffy echoed.
"Cubin was just a great person to run against if you are a Democrat," Duffy said. "Trauner doesn't have that foil this time around and he is going to get a real Republican to run against."
No matter who his opponent, Trauner said the key is to be persistent, continue to push both name and face recognition all over the state while keeping the message "clean and clear."
One thing he probably won't be counting on is active campaign work from the state's ranking Democrat, Governor Freudenthal, whose tepid support of Trauner in 2006 may indicate how he approaches this November, too. Even at the state convention – generally a party's pep rally – the governor stayed quiet, declining to comment on any of the federal elections, noting that he hadn't "really looked yet."
Carter, for one, says he's hopeful that he will get the governor's active support in the campaign, "if I get the nomination."
"Trauner's already the candidate," Carter said, "but in my race, I have a primary first and you can't blame the governor for staying out of that. In 2006, he had his own race (which Freudenthal won by a more than two-to-one margin) and he did weigh in as the election came closer."
While the governor has paid little attention to statewide races, Freudenthal did campaign for Barack Obama in Montana in advance of that state's June 3 primary. With little on his own political plate, Freudenthal may use some of his popularity to boost his party’s ticket in November.
Wyoming Democrat's Executive Director Bill Luckett says he's confident the party can do well this fall, boosted in part by the enthusiasm generated in February during the presidential caucuses. At Jackson, WY on May 23-24, the Democratic State Convention had a record turnout, and Luckett said Democrats have made inroads in Republican territory in recent years.
"The key to having a better presence in the state and to do well in strong Republican counties is to not only turn out Democrats everywhere, but produce better candidates, like Dave Freudenthal," he told WyoFile during the convention.
Funding those candidates, too, is a critical part of the picture, and next month's quarterly finance reports should provide an interesting indication of just how much of a contest the races for each seat in Wyoming's Congressional delegation will be.
Carter, who is traveling around the state and continuing to work his "day job" as an attorney, says the real push will come this fall.
"The campaign," he said at last month's party convention, "isn't really noticed until after Labor Day."
Hopefully, for Carter’s sake, the folks with the checkbooks will take notice before then.
** The front page banner images are courtesy of The Douglas-Budget newspaper. Photo credits are as follows: (from left to right) Democrat Jason Wright, photographed by BBK, Gary Trauner photographed by John Creek and Nick Carter, captured by BBK.
